Kevin O’Leary Breaks From Market Consensus: “A December Fed Cut Won’t Happen — And It Won’t Move Bitcoin Either

Kevin O’Leary is challenging one of the market’s most widely held assumptions: that the U.S. Federal Reserve is about to kick off an easing cycle in December. While traders across traditional finance and crypto markets are betting almost unanimously on a rate cut, the investor and Shark Tank personality believes the crowd has it wrong — and that Bitcoin enthusiasts expecting a rally from monetary policy are misreading the moment.

Speaking in an interview with Cointelegraph, O’Leary said he does not expect the Federal Reserve to lower rates at its December meeting. And even if it did, he argued that the impact on Bitcoin would be negligible. In his view, crypto traders are leaning into a narrative that simply doesn’t align with the Fed’s responsibilities or the economic signals policymakers are watching.

His contrarian stance comes at a time when markets have all but priced in a cut. Prediction market Polymarket is showing odds above ninety-five percent for a quarter-point reduction at the December 9–10 meeting. The CME FedWatch tool places the probability just shy of ninety percent, revealing one of the strongest consensus bets of the year.

O’Leary — known on television as “Mr. Wonderful” but equally recognized in financial circles as a longtime asset allocator — has become an influential voice in the digital-asset industry. He has invested in several crypto companies, has disclosed his own Bitcoin holdings and regularly shares insight into how institutions evaluate the asset class. That track record makes his macro views closely watched among retail investors who often attempt to anticipate central-bank policy through crypto positioning.

This time, however, he is rejecting the market’s dominant storyline. O’Leary said he is not structuring his portfolio around expectations of immediate rate relief, arguing that there are still multiple factors that could keep policymakers on hold. A disappointing ADP report showed private-sector payrolls shrinking by thirty-two thousand in November, a sharp contrast to economist forecasts of job growth. The weakness ignited a flood of bets that the Federal Reserve would cut rates to support a cooling labor market. Stocks surged on the release, with the Dow gaining more than four hundred points as traders embraced the possibility of faster easing.

But O’Leary’s lens stays fixed on the Fed’s dual mandate: price stability and maximum employment. He cautioned that inflation remains elevated, with annual readings near three percent, the highest level since January. At the same time, rising input costs and new tariff pressures are complicating the inflation outlook rather than encouraging a clear case for looser policy. The combination, he suggested, leaves the central bank in a position where it cannot move simply to satisfy market expectations.

His message to crypto investors is straightforward. Betting aggressively on a December cut is not only risky but unnecessary. Whether or not the Fed moves next week, he said, the decision is unlikely to be the catalyst Bitcoin traders are hoping for — because the forces shaping the asset’s long-term trajectory have less to do with overnight policy adjustments and more to do with broader capital cycles and institutional adoption.