World Bank Slashes Global Trade Outlook

The World Bank’s latest projections show global trade growth slowing from 3.4% in 2024 to an estimated 1.8% in 2025, citing persistent policy uncertainty and fragmentation of supply chains. Despite modest price gains, volume expansion remains tepid, with developed economies leading and emerging markets lagging.

The uneven recovery emphasizes the need for diversification and supply-chain resilience. Global corporates are likely to respond by reshoring or regionalizing operations, influencing capital expenditure decisions and sectoral returns.

For investors, the narrative suggests allocating capital to non-cyclical export segments with stable earnings, and regions less sensitive to trade cycles—while underweighting commodity-linked, trade vulnerability-prone areas.