Gold on the Edge of History: Why India’s Favourite Metal Is Quietly Preparing for a Massive Breakout

Gold is once again stealing the spotlight—this time with the kind of momentum that makes traders, investors, and even central banks sit up straight. As we head into a data-packed week, analysts say the yellow metal may be inching closer to uncharted territory.

At the heart of this surge is a mix of global anticipation and local demand. Investors worldwide are now waiting for a trio of major triggers: fresh US economic data, a market-moving speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, and the Reserve Bank of India’s upcoming policy announcement. Any shift in tone on interest rates or growth could tilt the scales in gold’s favour almost instantly.

Pranav Mer of JM Financial points out that gold has finally broken out of its sluggish trading pattern. Strong focus on manufacturing and services PMI numbers, US jobs data, and consumer sentiment has re-energized traders. Add Powell’s speech, geopolitical developments like Russia–Ukraine peace talks, and RBI’s policy update—and gold enters a zone where even small headlines can move prices sharply.

Back home, the story is even more interesting. On the MCX, February 2026 gold futures jumped nearly 3% this week to ₹1,29,504 per 10 grams. According to Angel One’s Prathamesh Mallya, two factors are playing a big role in India’s gold volatility: a weakening rupee and nonstop domestic demand. Festive buying, wedding season, and consistent jewellery purchases continue to lend strong support to prices.

Global central banks are also quietly shaping the future. Their steady accumulation of gold over the last few years isn’t slowing down—and analysts believe this long-term hoarding signals one thing: confidence in gold’s future as a stable store of value.

Karthick Jonagadla of Quantace Research adds that gold remains a clean and simple way for investors to bet on the direction of US real interest rates. If markets continue expecting a rate cut in December, gold could stay biased upward. But any surprise in upcoming data could trigger quick corrections—so sizing and hedging matter.

Internationally, the momentum is equally sharp. Comex gold futures climbed 3.4% this week, closing at USD 4,218.3 per ounce. The metal even rallied over 1% after trading resumed following an 11-hour CME outage, supported by a weak dollar and dovish Fed commentary.

But while gold is shining, silver is on fire.

Silver futures on the MCX skyrocketed nearly 11% this week, breaking through ₹1.75 lakh per kilogram for the first time. Comex silver surged over 13%, touching a record high of USD 56.45 per ounce. Analysts say dovish signals from the Fed and delayed US data releases have raised market confidence that borrowing costs will drop soon—boosting industrial metals like silver and copper.

Riya Singh of Emkay Global highlights that swap markets now price in an 80–87% chance of a rate cut next month—fueling even more optimism. Pranav Mer adds that silver’s breakout above ₹1,64,000 has opened the doors to higher short-term targets between ₹1,90,000 and ₹2,00,000 per kilogram.

The bottom line

If US data reinforces expectations of easing interest rates, and if global uncertainties persist, gold may very well attempt to retest—and possibly surpass—its record highs. And with silver running even faster, the precious metals market may be heading into one of its most explosive phases in years.

A historic move might just be around the corner.