Gold’s Supercycle: The Metal That Refuses to Cool Down

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Gold isn’t just rising — it’s staging a historic comeback. After soaring nearly 60% this year, the precious metal is now pacing toward its strongest annual performance since 1979. India has mirrored this global momentum, with MCX gold touching a record high of ₹1,32,294 per 10 grams. A cocktail of geopolitical unease, central-bank accumulation, and expectations of US rate cuts has pushed the world’s oldest safe haven into a new orbit.

Even the minor pullback couldn’t dent the enthusiasm. Prices have once again rebounded to around ₹1,26,283, inching closer to the lifetime high. The latest push came after traders sharply raised expectations of a December rate cut by the US Federal Reserve — from 50% just a week ago to nearly 85% now. For gold, that shift changes everything. Rate cuts lower real yields, and lower yields boost the shine of non-interest-bearing assets like bullion.

Analysts say the narrative has clearly flipped. Markets are no longer fixated on the risk of further tightening. Instead, the conversation has moved to when and how fast easing will begin. Add the lingering uncertainty surrounding Russia-Ukraine negotiations and unpredictable US trade policy, and gold continues to enjoy a steady stream of safe-haven attention.

Central banks around the world have been heavy buyers as well. Over the past year, they added more than 1,180 tonnes of gold to their reserves. While the pace has slowed slightly this year due to elevated prices, buying is still on track to end near the 1,000-tonne mark. Combined with rupee fluctuations and firm ETF inflows in India, the long-term foundation remains strong.

Can This Rally Stretch Further?

Most analysts believe the bigger picture still favours gold. Inflation has softened but not fully settled. Global growth lacks clear direction. And geopolitical tensions continue to simmer. Together, these factors keep investors anchored to the metal as a long-term hedge — even if the blistering pace of returns eventually cools.

Technically, gold has been signaling strength for months. Holding above ₹1,00,000 earlier in the year reinforced bullish control. The breakout above ₹1,30,000 opened the door for a broader rally toward ₹1,50,000 over the next phase. Market experts note that the multi-month resistance zone between ₹1,01,500 and ₹1,06,000 was cleared convincingly, backed by strong volume — a sign that buyers weren’t merely testing the waters.

Brokerages suggest that dips between ₹1,17,000 and ₹1,08,000 could offer attractive accumulation opportunities, with potential upside targets of ₹1,40,000 to ₹1,45,000 by 2026. The metal also appears to have built a steady base near the ₹1,21,000 to ₹1,23,000 band, which may help cushion short-term volatility.

Where the Risks Lie

Gold’s outlook is strong, but the journey ahead won’t be linear. A sudden rebound in the US dollar or a shift in the Fed’s tone could quickly cool things off. A stronger-than-expected global growth cycle may also force central banks to remain tight for longer, weighing on bullion.

From a technical standpoint, a sustained fall below ₹1,20,000 would be the first sign of fatigue. The next critical support zone would then sit closer to ₹1,08,000.

Gold Prices Across India

In Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, and most northern markets, 24-karat spot prices currently hover around the ₹1,26,200 to ₹1,26,450 range. Southern cities like Chennai and Bangalore quote slightly higher levels, with prices moving between ₹1,26,550 and ₹1,26,810. For 22-karat buyers, most major markets are quoting between ₹1,15,700 and ₹1,16,250 per 10 grams, depending on local taxes and demand.