Gold Rockets Higher as Weak U.S. Data Fuels Massive Rate-Cut Hopes

Gold shot back into rally mode on Tuesday, November 25, with MCX December futures climbing 1.3% to an intraday peak of ₹125,521 per 10 grams. The surge came as a wave of disappointing U.S. economic data boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve could roll out a December rate cut.

U.S. retail sales for September grew a mere 0.2%, slowing sharply from August’s 0.6% and missing forecasts entirely. At the same time, ADP data showed private employers cutting an average of 13,500 jobs per week in the four weeks ending November 8 — a clear sign of a cooling labor market. Producer price data, meanwhile, stayed broadly in line with inflation expectations.

Gold’s momentum actually began on Monday, when the metal jumped nearly 2% after Fed Governor Christopher Wallervoiced support for a December rate cut, pointing to ongoing weakness in the job market. His stance was reinforced by comments from Mary Daly and John Williams, further cementing market confidence. As of now, traders are pricing in an 81% probability of a 25-basis-point cut, up from roughly 40% just a week earlier.

Axis Securities: Gold Could Hit ₹1.40–1.45 Lakh by 2026

In its latest outlook, Axis Securities says gold remains in a strong structural uptrend, supported by a powerful breakout above the long-standing resistance zone of ₹101,500–₹106,000. The trend is reinforced by expanding bullish candles, solid volumes, and prices holding well above the 9- and 60-month SMAs — a clear sign of sustained institutional buying.

After recently touching a fresh lifetime high near ₹1,32,000, the brokerage believes gold could climb even higher. As long as the price stays above ₹102,000, Axis expects the bullish trend to hold strong, projecting potential upside targets of ₹1,40,000–₹1,45,000 by 2026.

They suggest traders consider accumulating on dips between ₹117,000 and ₹108,000, positioning for the next big leg higher.