Is Bitcoin Quietly Loading a Comeback? New Data Says the Bottom Might Be In

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Spotting Bitcoin’s true bottom is famously tricky, even for veteran analysts. But fresh on-chain signals and trading patterns are pointing to one possibility: Bitcoin may have finally carved out a bottom this month. The big question now is whether this marks a lasting turnaround or just another brief pause before more turbulence.

One of the strongest signs comes from the Whale vs. Retail Delta, an indicator that tracks the difference between long positions held by whales and retail traders. According to Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of Alphractal, whales — the deep-pocketed investors who control massive chunks of BTC — are now holding more dominant long positions than retail traders for the first time in history.

This same indicator spiked sharply in February and March and coincided with Bitcoin finding support near $75,000. Historically, when these readings hit extreme highs, BTC has formed local bottoms — though those moments have also triggered major liquidations.

Another positive shift is happening beneath the surface: spot trading volume is rising while derivatives open interest is falling. CryptoQuant data reveals Bitcoin’s daily spot volume on Binance stayed above $10 billion throughout November, far above the typical levels seen in earlier months. Meanwhile, open interest dropped by roughly $5 billioncompared to last month.

This combination suggests the market is flushing out speculative leveraged positions and replacing them with real spot buying — a dynamic often associated with healthier, more stable upside momentum.

Analyst Darkfost notes that these resets usually clear the path for stronger market phases — but only when the spot market steps in, which is exactly what’s happening now.

Together, these signals hint that Bitcoin may have printed a solid bottom in November.

Still, not everyone is convinced. Some analysts warn the current rebound could be a “dead cat bounce” — a brief recovery before prices resume their downward slide. This uncertainty may push traders to reduce leverage and tighten risk in case the market turns sharply once again.

For now, Bitcoin stands at a crossroads: either gearing up for a sustained comeback, or setting traders up for another unexpected twist.